What is the concept of a ‘demographic winter’? Is the world moving towards such a situation?

Introduction

• Begin your answer with the concept of demographic winter-scenario where birth rates decline significantly, falling below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman.
• State that the phenomena is being observed in many developed countries, raising concerns about long-term economic and social stability.

Body

Concept

• Demographic Winter or Collapse→ end of the demographic transition, fertility rates will not stabilize with mortality rates, 
• Rather, continue their downward trend, leading to a higher percentage of elderly persons, which will ultimately result in an overall population decrease.

The World Moving Towards “Demographic Winter”

Trend in Europe, North America, and Eastern Asia.

• Europe

1. 1. 1. Ageing population + lower birth rate than any other continent. E.g., 
         1. Italy: Total fertility rate (TFR) of Italy remained at 1.25 in 2021
         2. Germany: TFR of 1.5 in 2021
         3. Spain: TFR of 1.19 in 2021

• East Asia

1. 1. 1. South Korea: TFR remained 0.78, for 2023, 0.72, and it is expected to be 0.68 by end of 2024
      2. Japan-TFR of 1.3 in 2021

• Reverse Trends

1. 1. Many developing countries, particularly in Africa (e.g., Niger, where the fertility rate exceeds 6), and parts of South Asia (Pakistan-TFR of 3.4, continue to experience high birth rates)
   2. However, Demographic winter is coming, even to South Asia-
      1. E.g., Lancet study shows by 2050 India, Bangladesh and Pakistan would see their current birth rates drop by more than a third.

Concerns over Demographic Winter

• Labour Shortages and Economic Stagnation: According to Bank of Italy, the country will have 5.4 million fewer people of working age by 2040.
• Ageing population= Increased Social spending: E.g., As per WHO, ageing in Japan will result in an increase in health expenditures as a share of GDP by 2.59 percentage points between 2020 and 2060
• Intergenerational Inequality/Demographic Burden-more burden on younger to support elderly.

Conclusion

• Highlight that countries facing demographic winter need proactive policies, such as encouraging higher birth rates, promoting immigration, and investing in automation.
• You can use Hungarian demographic policy model as the best practice- It aims to combat the declining birth rate through financial incentives for families, increased support for early childhood education and care, work-family balance measures, and the promotion of traditional family values.

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