The Path to a New and Imminent U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal

Table of Contents

Context: The article discusses the recent developments and interactions between American and Iranian diplomats regarding the release of American prisoners in Iran and the potential for a fresh deal on the nuclear issue. It highlights the sequence of diplomatic interactions between the US and Iran in order to make their ties smoother. The article also suggests that while Iran is engaging in these negotiations, it is aware that any agreement reached may not have long-term value beyond the Biden administration. This indicates a cautious approach from Tehran, considering the potential for policy changes with future US administrations.

Background

Iran Nuclear Deal:

The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was an agreement reached between Iran and the P5+1 countries (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States).
The deal aimed to address concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and ensure that it remained peaceful.
Under the JCPOA, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities and allow international inspections in exchange for relief from economic sanctions imposed by the international community. The specific provisions of the deal included:
- Reduction of centrifuges and enriched uranium: Iran agreed to reduce its installed centrifuges by two-thirds and limit its uranium enrichment to 3.67% for 15 years. This significantly reduced Iran’s capability to produce highly enriched uranium, which can be used in nuclear weapons.
- Stockpile limitations: Iran committed to reducing its stockpile of low-enriched uranium by 98% and keeping it below 300 kilograms for 15 years.
- Fordow facility conversion: Iran agreed to convert the Fordow nuclear facility into a research centre and halt uranium enrichment activities at the site for 15 years.
- Arak reactor modification: Iran agreed to redesign the Arak heavy-water reactor to significantly reduce its production of plutonium, which can also be used in nuclear weapons.
- Enhanced inspections: Iran agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), granting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) increased access and monitoring of its nuclear facilities to verify compliance with the deal.
In exchange for these commitments, the P5+1 countries agreed to lift nuclear-related economic sanctions, including restrictions on Iran’s oil exports and financial transactions. However, other non-nuclear sanctions related to human rights abuses and Iran’s ballistic missile program were not lifted.
In May 2018, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and reimpose economic sanctions on Iran.
- This decision was based on concerns about the deal’s effectiveness in addressing Iran’s broader activities, such as its ballistic missile program and regional proxy conflicts.
- The withdrawal was strongly criticised by other signatories of the JCPOA and the international community.
Following the US withdrawal, Iran gradually scaled back its compliance with certain JCPOA provisions.
In January 2020, after the US assassinated Qasem Soleimani, a top Iranian general, Iran announced that it would no longer abide by the limits on uranium enrichment. Since then, Iran has continued to enrich uranium beyond the JCPOA’s agreed limits and has taken other steps to expand its nuclear program.

Response from Other signatories:

The other signatories of the JCPOA, particularly the European parties (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom), have sought to salvage the deal and maintain economic relations with Iran.
They have established alternative payment mechanisms, such as INSTEX (Instrument in Support of Trade Exchanges), to facilitate limited trade with Iran while bypassing US sanctions.
However, these efforts have been largely ineffective in offsetting the impact of US sanctions and restoring the full benefits of the JCPOA for Iran.

Current status:

In recent years, negotiations have been ongoing to revive the JCPOA and bring the United States back into compliance with the agreement.
These talks have faced challenges and delays, but there have been some positive developments, including interim agreements and a general commitment to return to full compliance with the JCPOA’s provisions.

Decoding the Editorial

The article outlines the key points of the proposed nuclear arrangement between the United States and Iran.

The Proposed Nuclear Agreement:

The agreement is expected to be informal and unwritten, described as a “mini-agreement” by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a “political ceasefire” by Iranian officials.
Iran will freeze its nuclear enrichment at 60%, indicating a limitation on the advancement of its nuclear program.
Iran will refrain from attacking U.S. military contractors in Syria and Iraq, suggesting a commitment to de-escalate tensions in those regions.
Iran will improve cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors, indicating a willingness to enhance transparency and allow for more rigorous monitoring of its nuclear activities.
Iran will not provide ballistic missiles to Russia, implying a restriction on the transfer of certain weapons technology.
Iran will release the three U.S. citizens it has in custody, signalling a resolution to the issue of American prisoners held in Iran.
The United States, in return, has made several pledges, including avoiding new harsh sanctions on Iran, refraining from seizing oil tankers in Gulf waters, and not pursuing anti-Iran resolutions in the United Nations. These commitments indicate a willingness to ease economic pressure and diplomatic tensions.
The U.S. is expected to defreeze Iran’s bank accounts of around $80 billion held in various banks outside the country. Additionally, immediate releases of $7 billion in South Korea and $2.7 billion in Iraq are anticipated. These actions aim to address Iran’s financial concerns and provide access to previously restricted funds.

American interests and implications associated:

The American interests and implications associated with the proposed nuclear arrangement with Iran include:

Since the agreement is unwritten, the Biden administration will not require Congressional approval, which saves time and avoids potential opposition from Republicans during the upcoming presidential campaign.
The U.S. acknowledges that the original Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), cannot be revived in its initial form. Instead, there are calls for a broader agreement that addresses Iran’s ballistic missile development, regional “malign” activities, and support for terrorism. However, these issues are unlikely to be addressed in the proposed arrangement.
U.S. officials have recognized that sanctions alone are no longer effective in influencing Iran’s responses to American pressures. Therefore, the proposed arrangement focuses primarily on concerns related to Iran’s uranium enrichment program, which has reached 84%, and its large stockpile of installed centrifuges.
The U.S. military estimates that Iran is “several months” away from developing a nuclear weapon, while Israeli sources believe it could take one to two years. This progress has raised concerns about a potential conflict in the region, as Israel, with or without U.S. support, might consider pre-emptive military action to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
From the perspectives of both the U.S. and Israel, a positive implication of the deal with Iran is that it could dissuade Saudi Arabia from pursuing its own nuclear ambitions. This suggests that a successful agreement with Iran could contribute to non-proliferation efforts in the Middle East.

Beyond the Editorial

Challenges facing the restoration of JCPOA:

The restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) faces several challenges, which have implications for various countries, including India.

Regional Cold War and Shia-Sunni Conflict: The ongoing regional rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran, fuelled by sectarian tensions between Shia and Sunni Muslims, poses a major hurdle to restoring the JCPOA. This conflict makes it difficult to negotiate peace and stability in the region. As India maintains diplomatic relations with both countries and has economic interests in the region, the tensions can impact India’s regional engagement and potentially affect its relations with either side.
Iran’s Violations and Escalation: Iran’s gradual violations of its JCPOA commitments, such as exceeding limits on enriched uranium stockpiles, complicate the restoration process. The more Iran deviates from the deal, the more challenging it becomes to bring it back into compliance. This raises concerns about Iran’s nuclear program and regional stability. India, being a key regional player, may face consequences such as potential disruptions in oil supplies and increased instability in the region.
US-Saudi Arabia Relations: The strengthening of ties between the United States and Saudi Arabia, particularly to counter Iran, can influence the dynamics of the JCPOA restoration. Saudi Arabia is an important energy supplier to India, and any developments in the US-Saudi relationship can impact India’s energy security and economic interests in the region.

Implications for India

Boost to Regional Connectivity:
- The restoration of the JCPOA and the removal of sanctions can revive India’s interest in regional connectivity projects, including the Chabahar port in Iran.
- India has strategic plans for Chabahar and other ports, which would enhance connectivity and trade with Afghanistan, Central Asia, and beyond.
- This would also help India counter China’s presence in Gwadar port, Pakistan, which is a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Energy Security: India heavily relies on oil imports to meet its energy needs.
- The restoration of ties between the US and Iran, resulting in the lifting of sanctions, could provide India access to affordable Iranian oil.
- This would help India diversify its energy sources and enhance its energy security, particularly considering the pressure India faces from the US’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which targets countries doing business with Iran, Russia, and North Korea.