Why are Tensions High in the Arctic?

Table of Contents

Context: International observers have expressed concerns about rising tensions in the Arctic, cautioning that if not addressed, they could potentially lead to conflict in the region.

Current Scenario in the Arctic

The Arctic is witnessing rising geopolitical tensions as climate change accelerates ice melting, unlocking new opportunities for resource extraction, trade routes, and military expansion.
Nations such as Russia, the U.S., Canada, Denmark, and China are asserting their claims and strategic interests, leading to growing concerns over potential conflict.
NATO and Russia are increasing military posture in the region, with Russia maintaining a strong icebreaker fleet and military bases, while NATO allies, including Sweden and Finland, are expanding their Arctic presence.

How Has Russia Made Its Presence Known in the Arctic?

Military Expansion: Russia has reopened Soviet-era Arctic military bases and modernized its presence with air defense systems, radar stations, and Arctic brigades.
Icebreaker Fleet: Russia has the world’s largest fleet of icebreakers, including nuclear-powered ones, giving it unmatched access to Arctic waters.
Territorial Claims: Russia has submitted claims to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf, arguing that large parts of the Arctic seabed belong to its continental shelf.
Symbolic Acts: In 2007, Russia planted a titanium flag on the Arctic seabed at the North Pole, signalling its ambitions.
Strategic Partnerships: Russia has conducted joint naval exercises with China and controls key segments of the Northern Sea Route, crucial for trade between Europe and Asia.

Why is the Arctic Crucial?

Resource Reserves: The Arctic is estimated to hold 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30% of its untapped natural gas reserves, along with rare earth elements, phosphates, and copper, making it a key battleground for energy security.
New Trade Routes: Melting ice is opening up strategic shipping routes like the Northeast Passage (along Russia’s coast) and the Northwest Passage (through Canada), potentially reducing maritime travel distances between Asia and Europe.
Strategic Significance: The Arctic has become an area of military interest, particularly for NATO and Russia. The Greenland-Iceland-U.K. (GIUK) gap is a key naval choke point.

How is the Arctic Controlled?

Arctic Council

Established: 1996 by the Ottawa declaration
Objective: To promote cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States together with the indigenous communities and other Arctic inhabitants.
- To promote research and facilitate cooperation among Arctic countries on issues related to the environmental protection and sustainable development of the Arctic region.

Arctic Council

Arctic Council Secretariat: The standing Arctic Council Secretariat formally became operational in 2013 in Tromsø, Norway.
Members: The Council has members, ad hoc observer countries and “permanent participants“
- Permanent: Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the U.S..
- Observer status: It is open to non-Arctic states, along with inter-governmental, inter-parliamentary, global, regional and non-governmental organizations that the Council determines can contribute to its work.
  - India holds as the Observer status in the Arctic Council.
Current Status: It is now struggling with geopolitical rivalries, particularly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Sovereign Territories: Eight Arctic nations (Permanent members of the Arctic Council) control land and resources within their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs).
UNCLOS Regulations: Nations can extend claims beyond their 200-nautical-mile EEZ if they prove the seabed is a natural extension of their continental shelf. Overlapping claims by Russia, Canada, and Denmark remain unresolved.

What Lies Ahead?

Geopolitical Rivalries Intensifying: U.S.-Canada disputes over the Northwest Passage, Russia’s military buildup and China’s growing Arctic ambitions are expected to fuel tensions.
Increased Militarization: Russia and NATO are conducting military drills in the Arctic, while China is developing nuclear-powered icebreakers to expand its presence.
Expanded Commercial Interests: As Arctic sea routes become more viable, countries will compete for economic benefits, particularly in resource extraction and shipping.
Environmental and Legal Challenges: Rising global temperatures and the absence of a comprehensive Arctic treaty (like the Antarctic Treaty) may lead to uncontrolled exploitation, further straining international relations.