Rising Temperature and Agriculture Yield

Context: India has reported the warmest February this year since 1877 with average maximum temperatures touching 29.54 degrees Celsius.

Reason for Warm February

• Lack of Rainfall: There was a 68% deficiency in rainfall in February over the country with 75% deficiency over northwest India.
• Weak western disturbances have resulted in little to no rainfall in December and January this year.
• Development of an anticyclone over Arabian Sea led to record heat over the country
  • An anticyclone is a high pressure area that results in warmer and drier weather.

IMD Forecast

• According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), most parts of the country are expected to experience above-normal temperatures while the southern peninsula and parts of Maharashtra are likely to escape the brunt of harsh weather conditions.
• Monsoon Prediction: Below-normal rainfall was expected over most areas of northwest India, west-central India and some parts of east and northeast India.
  • Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of peninsular India, east-central India and some isolated pockets of northeast India.
• It is the second consecutive year that the heat has set in early, which is likely to impact the wheat grain size and cumulative yield.

Impact of Heatwave on Agriculture

• Key wheat growing states like Madhya Pradesh will experience above normal temperatures that will adversely affect the wheat crop.
  • Higher day temperature lead to adverse effect on wheat as wheat crop is approaching reproductive growth period, which is sensitive to temperature.
  • High temperature during flowering and maturing period leads to loss in yield. There could be similar impact on other crops and horticulture
  • Last year’s heatwave shrivelled the wheat grains resulting in poor output.
• High Temperature also kills crop-friendly microbes in the soil which are vital for the optimum growth of the crops.
• Indian Council of Agricultural Research — Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research (ICAR-IIWBR) has issued an advisory, asking farmers to inspect their crops for yellow rust disease, which is a result of high temperatures.
  • Yellow rust is a fungal disease that attacks wheat plants and can lead to a significant reduction in crop yield and quality.

Impact of Low Crop Yield

• Food Security: As temperatures rise, the yields of food and cash crops in South Asia are expected to decline, putting pressure on food security in the region.
  • Scientists and researchers project that a 2.5 to 4.9 degrees Celsius increase in temperature could lead to a decrease of 41%-52% in the wheat yield, and 32%-40% in rice.
• Declining nutrition: An increase in carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere will have an adverse effect on nutrition, since elevated CO₂ levels interfere with processes that are important for the synthesis of protein in plants.
  • A decline in the nutritional quality of grains could exacerbate “hidden hunger”, a form of undernutrition where a person’s energy intake may be high enough, but intake of nutrients like iron and zinc is so low that it affects their health and development negatively.
• Economy: Inflation in cereals has been particularly worrying over the last couple of months.
  • Consumer Price Index reached 6.52% in January, beyond the Reserve Bank of India’s upper limit of tolerance (consecutively for two months).
  • The Food Corporation of India (FCI) has already ended up selling 1.8 million tonnes of wheat in the open market. A warm February could fuel this inflation further.
• Water Availability: Climate change also affects the availability of water through a decrease in seasonal rainfall and an increase in extreme rainfall events.

Way Forward

• Close cooperation between agricultural research centres and farmers is necessary to adapt to the changing climate.
• Scientists are advising farmers to readjust their agrarian calendars to cope up with an adversely changing climate.
• Access to information will equip the farmer with necessary tools to fight low productivity, or even the effects of rising temperatures
• Investment in climate-resilient agriculture in India
  • International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) is in the process of producing chickpeas that are more nutritious and resistant to climate change.
  • Indian Council of Agricultural Research [ICAR] has come up with a new wheat variety — HD-3385 — which is more heat-tolerant.

About India Meteorological Department (IMD)

• It was established in 1875.
• It is an agency of the Ministry of Earth Sciences of the Government of India.
• It is the principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting and seismology.

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