Are Pro-natalist Policies the Way to Address the Ageing Population Problem?

Table of Contents

Current Situations and Challenges

Declining Fertility Rates: India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) dropped to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1, suggesting a move toward population stabilisation.
- However, there is a regional divide; Kerala and Tamil Nadu are projected to have around 22.8% and 20.8% elderly populations, respectively, by 2036, whereas northern states, like Bihar, still have relatively high fertility rates.
- This demographic shift poses economic and social challenges, such as increased healthcare costs and a smaller working-age population.
Population Growth Momentum: Despite the declining TFR, India’s population will continue to grow until around 2070 due to population momentum, where a large cohort of women entering reproductive age contributes to ongoing population growth.
Federal Representation Concerns: The differing growth rates between states could affect federal representation and resource allocation.
- States with slower growth rates worry about being underrepresented in the federal system as population-based allocations are reconsidered.

Addressing Workforce Shortages: As the population ages, there will be a smaller workforce to support the economy and provide services, including healthcare and eldercare.
- Pro-natalist policies aim to encourage higher birth rates to offset this decline and ensure a sustainable working-age population.
Balancing Regional Demographics: Encouraging higher birth rates in states with slower population growth, like Tamil Nadu and Kerala, could potentially balance demographic trends across India.
- This will avoid a disproportionate burden on certain states to support an ageing population.

High Economic and Social Costs of Raising Children: High living costs, inadequate housing, and expensive childcare dissuade young couples from having larger families.
- For women, career interruptions due to child-rearing responsibilities further add to the opportunity cost, making it less appealing to have more children.
Ineffectiveness of Incentives: Countries with pro-natalist policies, like Hungary and Poland, offer cash incentives, extended maternity/paternity leave, and tax breaks.
- However, such measures have shown limited success as they do not address deeper issues such as work-life balance, affordable childcare, and job security for parents.
Gender Inequality in Care Responsibilities: Women are often the primary caregivers, and having more children increases the burden of unpaid care work.
- Without robust support systems, pro-natalist policies may reinforce gender inequality by pushing women out of the workforce.
Ecological and Sustainability Concerns: Lower fertility rates may be beneficial from an ecological sustainability perspective.
- A smaller population can reduce resource strain, supporting ecological balance and better quality of life. Encouraging higher fertility may conflict with goals for sustainable development.

Support for Older Population: Invest in healthcare and long-term care services tailored to the needs of an ageing population.
- Developing trained, empathetic care workers can also help create job opportunities while addressing the demand for eldercare.
Economic Adjustments and Technology: Focus on creating jobs suitable for older workers, as technological advances make physical labour less crucial.
- Job training and reskilling programs can help older individuals remain active in the workforce.
Promoting Gender Equality in Work and Family: Policies should focus on reducing the opportunity cost of child-rearing by ensuring affordable childcare, flexible work arrangements, and equal opportunities for women in the workforce.
Sustainable Development and Quality of Life: Rather than focusing solely on population numbers, policies could emphasise quality of life, environmental sustainability, and ensuring a balanced work-life environment for families.