National Contributions to Global Warming

Table of Contents

Context: A new research shows how countries have contributed to global warming through their emissions of key greenhouse gases since 1850.

It is built on records of historical emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) from the pre-industrial period to 2021.

Contributors to Warming (1850-2021)

Individual Nations:
- The United States ranked 1^st among all countries with 0.28°C of rise in temperature.
- China stood second with 0.20°C of warming.
- Russia ranked 3^rd with 0.10°C of warming.
- Brazil ranked 4th with 0.08°C of warming.
- India ranked 5^th in the list with a contribution of 0.08 degrees Celsius in warming.
Developing countries: The combined contributions to warming from Brazil, South Africa, India and China rose from 17% in 1992 to 23% in 2021.
Developed countries: The contribution from the industrialized OECD countries fell slightly from 47% to 40%.
Others: Indonesia, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan and Canada each contributed 0.03-0.05°C of warming.

CO2 is responsible for 1.11°C of warming compared to methane’s 0.41°C and nitrous oxides 0.08°C.
Up to 2021, 69.1% of the total warming caused by the three gases was related to emissions of CO2 alone.
UK (CO₂ makes up 87.6%% of warming); U.S. (83.3%); Russia (76.1%); Indonesia (71.3%); Brazil (64.7%); China (64.3%).

Additional contributions to warming are caused by fossil fuel emissions.
Since 1992, the additional warming caused by global fossil fuel emissions over four times greater than the additional warming caused by land use change.

In half of the world’s countries, the land-use and forestry contribute to all emissions since 1850.
The contributions of Brazil, Indonesia and Argentina are dominated by emissions linked to historical deforestation and agricultural expansion since 1850.