Editorial of the Day (9th Aug): Instability In India’s Neighbourhood Is A Concern

Context: At the Ammunition India conference organised by the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan said the “instability in our neighbourhood” is a cause of concern.

Major Security Challenges for India

• Proxy War by Pakistan: Ongoing proxy war in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly escalating in the south of Pir Panjal.
• Border Dispute with China: Prolonged and unresolved border dispute, with troops in a standoff at certain friction points in eastern Ladakh.
  • Pangong Tso Lake: This high-altitude lake has been a major flashpoint, with both Indian and Chinese troops stationed on its northern and southern banks. The area saw significant clashes in 2020.
  • Galwan Valley: The site of a deadly clash in June 2020, where soldiers from both sides lost their lives. This incident marked a significant escalation in tensions.
  • Hot Springs and Gogra: These areas have seen standoffs and troop build-ups. Both sides have engaged in talks to de-escalate the situation here.
  • Depsang Plains: This strategic area has seen Chinese incursions, leading to concerns about the security of the nearby Daulat Beg Oldi airstrip.
  • Demchok: Another area of contention, with reports of Chinese infrastructure development and troop movements.
• Neighbourhood Instability: Instability in neighbouring countries is a cause for concern.
  • Example: Political instability in Bangladesh.

Global Geopolitical Environment

• State of Flux: Described the global geopolitical environment as being in a state of significant disruption.
  • Forms of disruption: Technological, economic, environmental (climate change), demographic, migration, and issues of peace and security.
• Other ongoing conflicts include Myanmar, Sudan, Congo, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Armenia, though some of these have temporarily settled.

Global Security Challenges

• Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA): The world is in a highly volatile and uncertain phase, the most violent since World War II.
• Impact on Defence Supply Chains: The volatility severely impacts global defence supply chains, especially ammunition, with a significant gap between demand and supply.

Suggestion For Improvement

• Promotion of ‘Aatmanirbharta’: Emphasised the need for the collaboration between the Services, defence industries, scientists, and academia.
  • Stressed the significance of self-reliance (Aatmanirbharta) to maintain strategic autonomy.
• Technological Innovations: Innovations in technology, tactics, and ammunition, citing examples from the Ukraine conflict and the Kargil war.
• Opportunities in Disruptions: Stated that disruptions in global defence supplies present opportunities for global defence manufacturers, including Indian markets.
• Strong Armed Forces and Industrial Sector: Stressed that a strong armed force backed by a robust industrial sector is essential for national security.
• Defence Diplomacy: Indigenous capabilities can enhance defence diplomacy and open new opportunities for the defence industry.

Recent Instabilities in India’s Neighbourhood

Bangladesh

• Sheikh Hasina resigned as Prime Minister and fled the country due to violent protests.
• Protests began over a controversial job quota system and escalated to demands for Hasina’s resignation.
• Hundreds of people were killed in the crackdown on demonstrations.
• General Waker-Uz-Zaman announced Hasina’s resignation and promised an interim government.
• The Border Security Force (BSF) issued a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border.
• India is closely monitoring the situation, given its strategic interests and past cooperation with Hasina.

Impact of Instability in Neighbourhood on India

• Security Concerns: Instability in neighbouring countries leads to heightened security concerns for India.
  • Examples: Violent protests and political unrest in Bangladesh have prompted India to issue a high alert along the India-Bangladesh border.
    • The armed rebellion in Myanmar has resulted in an influx of refugees into India’s northeastern states, straining local resources and security.
• Issue of drug smuggling: It is also destroying the social fabric of Indian society due to Pakistan’s Myanmar vicinity and India being in the middle of the ‘Golden Crescent’ and ‘Golden Triangle’.
• Strategic Loss: Political instability in neighbouring countries can lead to the loss of strategic allies for India.
  • Examples: With Sheikh Hasina’s resignation, India has lost a reliable ally who helped combat terror groups in the region.
• Economic Impact: Instability in neighbouring countries can have economic repercussions for India through trade disruptions and strained resources.
  • Example: Frequent government changes in Nepal can delay or alter the progress of bilateral projects like the Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project, affecting water resource management.
    • Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project (India and Myanmar) has encountered numerous obstacles, primarily due to Myanmar’s political instability, ethnic armed groups, and law and order issues.
  • Humanitarian and Refugee Issues: Political instability in neighbouring countries often leads to humanitarian crises, including refugee influxes, which India must address.
    • Examples: Rohingya crisis in Myanmar led to thousands of refugees seeking asylum in India, putting pressure on resources and infrastructure.

What is the Golden Crescent?

The Golden Crescent comprises Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan The region is infamous for organised crime activities like the flow of illegal drugs, which aids other illicit activities. India’s proximity to the Golden Crescent has made it vulnerable to the trafficking of drugs and narcotics. Comprises Of 2 Routes: Northern Route: Opium and heroin are trafficked to the Russian Federation by way of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Southern Route: Heroin travels from Afghanistan through Pakistan and Iran by sea to South Asia, Africa and Oceania region.

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