Indus Water Treaty, Historical Context, Recent Developments and Disputes

Context

• India has escalated its demands for the renegotiation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), originally signed in 1960, by issuing its fourth notice to Pakistan since January 2023.
• This latest move involves halting all meetings of the Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) until Pakistan agrees to engage in discussions.

Historical Context of the Indus Waters Treaty

• The IWT was signed on September 19, 1960, after nine years of negotiations facilitated by the World Bank.
  • It allocates water from the Indus River and its tributaries, giving Pakistan control over approximately 70% of the water while India retains about 30%.
• The treaty was previously regarded as a successful model for international water-sharing agreements, with India winning disputes regarding projects like the Baglihar Dam (2007) and addressing concerns over Pakistan’s Neelum project (2013).

Recent Developments and Dispute of Indus Waters Treaty

Ongoing Disputes

• Kishanganga and Ratle Projects: The current impasse started over the Kishenganga and Ratle projects in 2016, when Pakistan escalated the issue, requesting both a neutral expert and a Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) to resolve the disputes.
• World Bank’s Role: The World Bank, a co-signatory and guarantor of the treaty, allowed two parallel dispute mechanisms to run simultaneously, a decision that created further complications.
  • India has boycotted PCA hearings, while Pakistan has not engaged with the neutral expert’s proceedings.

India’s Latest Notice

• In a formal notice issued on August 30, 2024, India cited “fundamental and unforeseen changes” necessitating a reassessment of treaty obligations under Article XII(3).
  • This article allows for modifications through mutual agreement.
• Key concerns include:
  • Changing population demographics.
  • Environmental issues exacerbated by climate change.
  • The need for clean energy development to meet emission targets.
  • Ongoing cross-border terrorism impacting national security.

Political Dynamics

• The current political climate between India and Pakistan is marked by increased tensions, with leaders using more aggressive rhetoric than in previous decades.
• Prime Minister Modi’s statement post-2016 Uri attack that “blood and water cannot flow together” exemplifies this shift.

Impact on Bilateral Relations

• There is a notable lack of political engagement or trade between the two nations, with the 2021 Line of Control (LoC) ceasefire agreement now at risk due to rising terror attacks.
• The potential for reopening treaty discussions exists, particularly in light of Pakistan’s invitation to attend the SCO Heads of Government meeting on October 15-16, which could serve as a platform for dialogue.

Need for Treaty Revisions

Experts argue that the IWT requires updates to address modern challenges:

• Climate change impacts necessitate new frameworks for water management.
• The treaty’s provisions do not account for modern hydropower technologies that enhance efficiency.
• Enhancements are needed to resolve disputes effectively between states within each country.

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