Editorial of the Day: India’s Myanmar quandary, its paradoxical policy (The Hindu)

Context: The article is discussing significant events that took place recently in Myanmar, highlighting their implications for the ongoing political situation in the country. The article also points out the contradiction between India’s official stance on supporting democracy in Myanmar and its actual policy, which is influenced by its security concerns in the northeast region of India and its relationship with China. This contrast implies that India’s actions might not align with its stated commitment to democracy in Myanmar. Overall, the article discusses recent events in Myanmar, including the extension of the ’emergency’ and the release of political prisoners, while questioning the true intentions behind these actions and examining the complexities of India’s approach to the situation.

Decoding the Editorial

• Course of Events:
  • On July 31, the acting President of Myanmar, Myint Swe, declared a fourth extension of the ’emergency’ for an additional six months.
  • This action was considered a violation of the 2008 Constitution of Myanmar, and it reflects the continuation of the military regime’s hold on power.
  • On August 1, the military regime made the decision to release some political prisoners and reduce the sentences of prominent figures like Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, a Nobel laureate and former de facto leader of Myanmar, as well as the deposed President Win Myint.
  • Aung San Suu Kyi was also transferred from prison to house arrest.
  • These actions might seem like positive developments on the surface, but the article suggests that they do not necessarily indicate a genuine move towards democratic and peaceful governance in Myanmar.
• Emergency and Elections:
• • Extension of Emergency and Elections Delay: The extension of the emergency in Myanmar has led to a further delay in the proposed elections by the military regime. The justification for the extension is the failure to establish ‘normalcy’ in significant parts of the country.
  • Violence and Control: Despite the pursuit of ‘normalcy,’ Myanmar’s civilians continue to suffer, with high levels of violence reported. The military, known as the Tatmadaw, exerts real control over only a portion of the country’s territory, as acknowledged by both the military itself and external reports.
  • Election Credibility Concerns: The article suggests that holding a national election under the current circumstances could lead to a lack of credibility, especially if it is conducted in only a portion of the country. The reshuffling within the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), backed by the military, raises concerns about the junta’s commitment to democracy.
  • Opposition and Political Dynamics: The National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi, has decided not to participate in the new elections. This, along with the exclusion of smaller parties through new party registration laws, leaves little viable opposition to the USDP in a parliament where the military wields a practical veto.
  • Aung San Suu Kyi’s Role: Aung San Suu Kyi, despite being a rival to the Tatmadaw, has shown a willingness to compromise and work with the military. Her return to active politics could potentially affect the dynamics of the National Unity Government (NUG), which is led by a younger generation of activists cooperating with ethnic armed organizations and working towards reconciliation, even with the Rohingya population.
  • Symbolic Gestures by the Junta: The junta’s decision to reduce Aung San Suu Kyi’s sentence and shift her from prison, along with other symbolic gestures, may help ease some protests and allow the military to claim progress in response to international and regional appeals. These gestures could also serve as a means of engaging with other countries, such as India.

Various aspects of India’s policy towards Myanmar:

India’s policy towards Myanmar is characterized by a mix of humanitarian assistance, geopolitical interests, and security concerns.

• Initial Assistance: At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic and the coup in Myanmar, India took proactive steps by providing food and vaccine assistance to Myanmar.
• Fading Attention and Shifting Focus: Over time, the attention and support towards the Myanmarese people seemed to have diminished, and accusations of instigating violence in Manipur began to take precedence.
• Border Communities and Refugees: Communities along the India-Myanmar border defied the Indian Home Ministry by offering shelter to refugees from Myanmar.
• Suspension of Free Movement Regime: India suspended the Free Movement Regime with Myanmar in September 2022 due to concerns over trafficking and drug smuggling.
• Bilateral Talks and Support for ASEAN Consensus: India engaged in bilateral talks with Myanmar’s leadership on issues such as infrastructure projects and stability in border areas. India also expressed support for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) ‘Five-Point Consensus’ regarding Myanmar.
• Act East Policy and Geopolitical Interests: India’s Act East Policy aims to counter China’s influence in the region, including its railway access in Myanmar through projects like the Sairang-Hmawngbuchhuah railway project near the Myanmar border.
• Arms Supply Controversy: There are reports from sources such as Justice for Myanmar, the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M), and the United Nations Special Rapporteur indicating an increase in India’s arms supply to the Myanmar military after the coup. This has raised concerns about the contradiction between India’s stance on democracy restoration and its arms sales, which might contribute to regional instability.

Potential approaches for India to consider:

• Engagement with Aung San Suu Kyi and Pro-Democracy Actors: India could take advantage of the relaxation of Aung San Suu Kyi’s prison sentence to engage with her and other pro-democracy actors, including the National Unity Government (NUG). This engagement could help support democratic forces within Myanmar and encourage a peaceful transition to a more inclusive and representative government.
• Balanced Treatment of Refugees: India should avoid a blanket securitization approach and profiling of incoming refugees from Myanmar. Instead, the government and media should adopt a compassionate and caring approach, recognizing that many of these refugees have ties of kinship in India. This approach can help prevent further violence and ensure that those seeking refuge are treated with dignity and respect.
• Regional and International Diplomacy: India could continue to engage in diplomatic efforts both regionally and internationally. This might involve working with organizations like ASEAN, which has been involved in mediating discussions about Myanmar, and supporting diplomatic initiatives aimed at addressing the crisis and promoting stability.
• Humanitarian Assistance: India could increase its humanitarian assistance to address the ongoing crisis in Myanmar. This could include providing aid to refugees, supporting healthcare initiatives, and collaborating with international organizations to alleviate the suffering of the Myanmarese people.
• Support for Democratic Institutions: India could offer support to democratic institutions and civil society organizations in Myanmar. This could involve capacity building, training, and other forms of assistance to empower local actors working towards a more democratic and stable Myanmar.
• Promotion of Peace and Reconciliation: India could play a role in facilitating dialogue and reconciliation among different groups within Myanmar. This could contribute to long-term stability and help address underlying tensions and conflicts.
• Coordinated Efforts: India could coordinate its efforts with other countries and international bodies to ensure a unified and effective approach to addressing the situation in Myanmar.

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