India is getting Old before getting Rich

Table of Contents

Key Demographic Factors Influence Composition of a Population

Fertility
- Fertility rates directly influence the proportion of children in a population.
- A decline in fertility reduces the share of children in the population, which automatically increases the proportion of older individuals.
Mortality
- Mortality rates affect life expectancy and the size of older populations.
- An increase in life expectancy leads to a larger share of older individuals in the population.
Migration
- Migration can redistribute population and impact demographic composition.
- Migration typically involves younger individuals moving to urban areas, leaving behind a higher concentration of elderly people in rural regions.

Rapid Ageing: India is ageing faster than developed nations. This risks India exiting the window of opportunity before fully reaping its demographic dividend.
- eg., France took 120 years for the share of the older population (65+) to double from 7% to 14%.
  - India achieved this in 28 years, indicating much faster ageing compared to developed countries. In some South Indian states, this doubling is occurring in less than 20 years, highlighting regional disparities.
Unbalanced Fertility Transition: Fertility decline in India is ahead of its socio-economic transition.
- eg., Andhra Pradesh has a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 1.5, comparable to that of Sweden, despite having a per capita income that is 22 times lower than Sweden’s.
Dependency Ratio Shift: A larger older population relies on the working-age group. This is increasing economic and caregiving pressures.
- eg., the feminisation of ageing (as the life expectancy of women exceeds that of men by about 5 years) results in increasing widowhood among elderly population and elderly women in families need greater prioritisation.

Insufficient Social Security: A significant proportion of elderly Indians work in informal sectors with no social security.
- Policies addressing this gap are limited, adding to the economic burden on families.
Health Transition: The double burden of communicable diseases and a rising incidence of non-communicable diseases strains healthcare systems.
- The need for palliative and curative care adds further challenges.
Economic Inequities: India risks ageing before fully reaping its demographic dividend (expected to last until 2045). This reduces the potential for economic growth.

Rising Cost of Living: Urbanisation increases living costs, making parents less inclined to have more children due to higher expenses for education, healthcare, and housing.
Delayed Marriages and Parenthood: Unemployment and the quest for financial stability lead to delayed marriages and fewer children, affecting population dynamics.
Shift in Priorities: Educated women increasingly prioritize careers and self-actualisation over childbearing.

Pro-Natalist Policies: Global and Indian Context

Global Examples and Effectiveness

United Kingdom: Pro-natalist policies led to a slight increase in fertility, but no significant reversal in trends.
Japan: AI-driven matchmaking efforts were introduced to encourage marriages and births.
Europe: Monetary incentives for childbearing, but results have been minimal.
South Korea: Despite massive investments, the TFR remains at 0.8, one of the world’s lowest.

Key Lessons

Limited Success: Pro-natalist policies have not reversed fertility declines in any country.
Gender Equality as a Strategy: Evidence suggests improving gender norms, such as men sharing household responsibilities, can reduce the motherhood penalty and support higher fertility rates.

Strengthen Social Security: Introduce pension schemes for informal sector workers.
- Develop community-based elderly care systems.
Improve Healthcare Infrastructure: Expand care services to address non-communicable diseases and provide palliative care.
Leverage the Demographic Dividend: Invest in skill development and employment opportunities for the working-age population to sustain economic growth during the demographic opportunity phase.
Support Gender Equality: Promote policies encouraging equal household responsibilities to empower women to balance family and career.
Focus on Sustainable Fertility Rates: Encourage family-friendly workplace policies, including paid maternity/paternity leave and affordable childcare, to support higher fertility rates.

Social and Cultural Adjustments

Enhance Family Systems: Strengthen intergenerational support through cultural initiatives and incentives for families to care for the elderly.
Tackle Widowhood: Address social stigma and provide targeted financial and psychological support for widowed elderly women.