Context: The International Labour Organization (ILO) has indicated that the global unemployment rate is projected to decrease marginally from 5.0% in 2023 to 4.9% this year, despite ongoing disparities in labour markets.
Highlights of Global Unemployment
Regional Insights
- United States: The reduction in unemployment is notably more significant in the United States compared to the rest of the world in the initial months of 2024.
Economic Factors Influencing Unemployment
- Economic Growth: Global economic growth has been marginally better than expected, aiding in the reduction of unemployment.
- Interest Rates: The report highlighted the lagged effects of higher interest rates which slowed down some sectors such as corporate borrowing but locked in lower rates for households which are less sensitive to Federal Reserve’s tightening compared to previous times.
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Outlook
- Economic Growth Forecast: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a global growth rate of 3.2 per cent for the year 2024.
- US Specific Forecast: The growth forecast for the US is somewhat subdued due to various economic adjustments.
ILO’s Perspective on Labor Market
- Market Outlook: While there is a slight improvement, the International Labour Organization (ILO) remains cautious about the labour market’s future due to uncertainties and the potential need for policy adjustments.
- Long-term Trend: Despite the improvement in 2024, the unemployment trend is expected to worsen slightly in 2025.
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