Export and Import Trend

• Dip in Export and Import: Tentative global demand pulled India’s goods exports down 8.8% in February to $33.9 billion.
  • While the imports fell 8.2% from a year ago to $51.31 billion.
•  This is the 3rd time in 5 months that merchandise exports have contracted, following an 11.6% drop in October 2022 and a 3% fall in December 2022.

• Outbound Shipments: The value of outbound shipments dropped for 16 of India’s top 30 export items in February.
  • With 14 of them recording close to or higher than double digit declines.
  • This included a 9.7% dip in engineering exports, which have been a bulwark of India’s exports in recent years.
• Merchandise Trade Deficit: It fell 7% to $17.43 billion during February 2023.
  • This was slightly higher than January’s $16.56 billion deficit, which in turn was the lowest in at least 18 months.
• January and February 2023 had a lower average deficit than seen through all of 2022, when the monthly deficit hit a record $29.23 billion in September.
•  Fall in Oil Exports: Oil exports fell sharply by 28.8%, while imports went below the $52 billion-mark, a level not seen for almost a year.
•  Gold Imports: Gold imports dropped almost 45% from February 2022 levels to $2.63 billion.
  • But  this constituted a 277% month-on-month jump from January’s imports of the yellow metal.
• Goods Exports: For the first 11 months of 2022-23, India’s total goods exports now stand at $405.94 billion.
  • This is 7.55% higher than in the same period of 2021-22.
  • Imports have grown 18.82% over the same period to $653.47 billion from $550 billion( a year ago).
• India’s goods trade deficit for this year is now 43.5% higher than in the first 11 months of 2021-22, at $247.53 billion.

• Export Slowdown: Moderation in trade deficit is a positive due to lower imports amid softening commodity prices.
• Export slowdown is likely to aggravate further amid an uncertain global scenario.
• Revised Estimates: Import numbers for January 2023 have been upgraded from $50.66 billion to $52.33 billion, 0.45% lower than a year ago.
• Government had initially estimated a 6.6% drop in exports for January 2023.
  • But  January’s exports have now been revised upward by $2.8 billion to $35.76 billion, reflecting a 1.5% rise from January 2022 levels.
• On a sequential basis, February’s exports were 5.25% lower than January 2023 while the import bill was about 2% below the previous month’s level.

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