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As India concludes its marathon seven-phase Lok Sabha elections in 2024, exit polls have started to predict the potential outcome of the elections. Most exit polls forecast a decisive victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), with several suggesting that the NDA could secure over 350 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, thus setting the stage for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third consecutive term in office.
What are Exit Polls?
Exit polls are surveys conducted after voting, aiming to predict election outcomes. Pollsters sample voters as they exit polling stations, asking about candidate preferences. Results are analyzed statistically to estimate seat or vote shares for parties. Despite limitations like sampling errors, exit polls provide valuable insights into voter sentiment before official results are announced, often influencing public perception of election outcomes.
Lok Sabha Exit Poll 2024
The 2024 Lok Sabha exit polls present a mixed picture with varying predictions about the likely winner. According to most exit polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) are projected to secure a significant majority. However, one notable exception is the DB Live poll, which predicts a majority for the INDI alliance with 255-290 seats, while the NDA is expected to win 201-241 seats.
Overview | |
Name of event | Lok Sabha Election 2024 Exit Poll Results |
Elections conducted by | Election Commission of India |
Election conducted for | Post of Prime Minister |
Total phases of election | Seven |
Lok Sabha Chunav 2024 Exit Poll Results | 1 June 2024 at 6 PM |
Lok Sabha Election Results 2024 | 4 June 2024 |
Lok Sabha Election 2024 Winner | To be announced on 4 June 2024 |
Category | News |
Official Website | www.eci.gov.in |
Lok Sabha Exit Poll 2024: Key Predictions
A comprehensive review of twelve major exit polls presents a robust consensus in favor of the NDA:
Source | NDA | I.N.D.I.A | OTH |
---|---|---|---|
India News- D-Dynamics | 371 | 125 | 47 |
Jan Ki Baat | 362-392 | 141-161 | 10-20 |
News Nation | 342-378 | 153-169 | 21-23 |
Republic Bharat- Matrize | 353-368 | 118-133 | 43-48 |
Republic TV – P MARQ | 359 | 154 | 30 |
NDTV Poll of Polls | 365 | 142 | 36 |
Exit Poll Live
- North Zone: The NDA is predicted to have a strong lead with 150-160 seats, while the INDI alliance might secure 20-30 seats.
- East Zone: Here, the NDA is expected to win 80-90 seats, and the INDI alliance 50-60 seats.
- South Zone: The INDI alliance appears strong with 70-80 seats, whereas the NDA might only secure 20-30 seats.
- West Zone: The NDA is projected to win 45-55 seats, and the INDI alliance 25-35 seats.
State-Specific Highlights
- Tamil Nadu Exit Poll: The INDI alliance is expected to win 37-39 seats, with the NDA getting just one seat.
- Maharashtra Exit Poll: The INDI alliance is projected to secure 28-30 seats, while the NDA might get around 20 seats.
- Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll: The NDA is predicted to win as many as 74 out of 80 seats, according to Matrize-Republic, with other polls suggesting a slightly lower but still dominant tally.
- West Bengal Exit Poll: The BJP and TMC are in a close contest, with the NDA likely to secure 20 seats and the INDI alliance 22 seats, reflecting a highly competitive scenario.
Overall, while the BJP-led NDA is predicted to have a strong showing nationally, particularly in the northern and western states, the INDI alliance shows significant strength in the southern states and some eastern regions. The final results, however, will depend on the actual vote counts to be announced soon.
UP Exit Poll
- Matrize-Republic exit poll: NDA to win up to 74 seats out of 80.
- India News-NewsX-D-Dynamics: BJP to improve its 2019 tally and win 65 seats; NDA allies to win 4 additional seats, bringing the total to 69.
- India Today’s Axis My India poll: BJP to win 64-67 seats, with the INDI alliance securing 8-12 seats.
- Jan ki Baat poll: NDA to win 68-74 seats, with the INDI alliance getting 6-12 seats.