According to United Nations, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million in which year?

2023, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million, according to United Nations.

Divergent Demographic Paths of India and China

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The critical juncture: The years 2022 and 2023 will mark two landmark demographic years for China and India.
- In 2022, for the first time, China registered an absolute decline in its population.
- And in 2023, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million, according to United Nations.
Two primary drivers behind these demographic shifts:

Crisis for China – Declining working age population:
- China’s working-age population is projected to fall below 50% by 2045. Moreover, the average (median) age of the population, which was 28.9 years in 2000 and 37.4 years in 2020, is expected to soar to 50.7 years by 2050.
- In short, China faces the prospect of a dwindling labour force having to support a rapidly aging population.
Opportunity for India – Demographic Dividend:
- For India, the share of working age population in the overall population crossed 50% only in 2007, and will peak at 57% towards the mid-2030s.
- The median age of India’s population also will not go up much — from 27.3 years in 2020 to 38.1 in 2050 — adding up to a less depressing prospect than China’s.
- Overall then, India has a window of opportunity well into the 2040s for reaping its “demographic dividend”, like China did from the late 1980s until up to 2015.