Divergent Demographic Paths of India and China

The Different Demographic Paths of India and China

• The critical juncture: The years 2022 and 2023 will mark two landmark demographic years for China and India.
  • In 2022, for the first time, China registered an absolute decline in its population.
  • And in 2023, India’s population will surpass China’s 1,425.67 million, according to United Nations.
• Two primary drivers behind these demographic shifts:

Implications for China and India

• Crisis for China – Declining working age population:
  • China’s working-age population is projected to fall below 50% by 2045. Moreover, the average (median) age of the population, which was 28.9 years in 2000 and 37.4 years in 2020, is expected to soar to 50.7 years by 2050.
  • In short, China faces the prospect of a dwindling labour force having to support a rapidly aging population.
• Opportunity for India – Demographic Dividend:
  • For India, the share of working age population in the overall population crossed 50% only in 2007, and will peak at 57% towards the mid-2030s.
  • The median age of India’s population also will not go up much — from 27.3 years in 2020 to 38.1 in 2050 — adding up to a less depressing prospect than China’s.
  • Overall then, India has a window of opportunity well into the 2040s for reaping its “demographic dividend”, like China did from the late 1980s until up to 2015.

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