Current Affairs 1st May 2024 for UPSC Prelims Exam

Rafah

Context: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu committed to initiate a military operation in Rafah where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have sought refuge amid the ongoing war.

Rafah- Mapping

• Rafah is a city situated in the southern part of Gaza, near the Egypt border.
• The city was divided into Gazan and Egyptian sections when Israel withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula in 1982.
• Initially, Rafah served as a refuge for people fleeing from northern Gaza during the early stages of the most recent Israel-Gaza conflict.
• Currently, Rafah’s population has increased to approximately 1.3 million people, accounting for more than half of Gaza’s total population.

Understanding Methane Emissions

Context: A modelling study has found methane emissions from fossil fuels declined between 1990 and the 2000s and have been stable since, whereas microbes have been producing more methane of late.

Understanding the Methane Sources

• Second most abundant human-caused greenhouse gas after CO2.
• Methane, a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential 28 times greater than CO2 over a century, has recently become a central focus in global warming policies.
• The ‘Global Methane Pledge’ launched at the U.N. climate talks in 2021 aims to reduce methane emissions to slow global warming.

New Findings on Sources

• Methane sources are broadly categorised into:
  • Biogenic: Produced by methanogens, (microorganisms thriving in low-oxygen environments like wetlands, rice paddies, and animal digestive tracts.)
  • Thermogenic: Released during the extraction of fossil fuels.

Research Methods

• Tracked methane isotope ratios (carbon-13) to distinguish between source types.
• Analysed data from global monitoring sites (1990s-2020) using a supercomputer model.
• Compared their results with existing methane emission inventories (EDGAR & GAINS).

Key Findings and Discrepancies

• The research contradicted common emissions inventories, showing a decline in methane emissions from fossil fuels since the 1990s and stability post-2000s.
• It also highlighted that microbial sources have been producing more methane than fossil fuels, suggesting a shift in the major sources of methane.
• Possible Explanations for Discrepancy:
  • Increased methane production from:
    • Cattle rearing in Latin America.
    • Waste in South/Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa.
    • Expanding global wetlands.

Limitations of Current Study

• Relies on data from geographically dispersed observatories.
• Lacks local data on specific sources (e.g., within wetlands or rice fields).

Call to Action

• Focus mitigation efforts on human activities:
  • Waste management (landfills).
  • Agriculture (rice cultivation).
  • Animal farming (enteric fermentation).
  • Fossil fuel production (oil, gas, coal).
• Need for more ground-based data collection to pinpoint specific sources.

Monsoon in South Asia

Context: The forecasts during the 28th South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) meeting included predictions of ‘above-normal rainfall’ across most of South Asia during the upcoming monsoon season, with the exception of some northern and northeastern parts.

More in the News

• Southwest Monsoon Rainfall: Above-normal rainfall is expected over South Asia during the June to September season, with the seasonal rainfall likely to be normal overall.
  • Most of Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and central Bhutan are predicted to receive normal or above-normal rainfall.
• Affected Areas: Areas such as West Afghanistan, northern and eastern Pakistan, northern Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep, southwest Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, and central and southern Myanmar might experience above-normal day temperatures during the ongoing summer season.
• El Nino and La Nina Conditions: The forecast noted that moderate El Nino conditions were prevailing, likely to weaken into El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions during the early part of the monsoon season, with the possibility of La Nina conditions developing in the second half.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): There was a strong likelihood that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) would enter a positive phase, which typically positively influences the southwest monsoon over the region.
• Extreme Heat: Alongside the rainfall forecasts, it was mentioned that many South Asian countries, including India and Bangladesh, were experiencing extreme heat.

Self Driving Cars

Context

• Tesla secured tentative approval for Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software in China.
• This development comes amid challenges faced by Tesla, including slowing electric vehicle demand and growing apprehensions about FSD in the United States and China.

What is Full Self-Driving (FSD)?

• FSD is an advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) allowing for more autonomous driving and enhances safety and convenience behind the wheel.
• It includes features like navigating highways, suggesting lane changes, and automatic parking.

Tesla Autopilot and FSD Feature

• Designed for attentive drivers with hands on the wheel, always prepared to take control.
• Not truly autonomous despite names “Autopilot” and “FSD” which overstate capabilities.
• Currently under regulatory review in the US for these reasons.

Autopilot Features:

• Traffic-Aware Cruise Control: adjusts car speed to match surrounding traffic.
• Autosteer: assists with steering within marked lanes while using Traffic-Aware Cruise Control.

FSD Features (upgrade to Autopilot):

• Navigate on Autopilot: guides car from highway on-ramp to off-ramp.
• Lane change suggestions and automatic execution (with Autosteer engaged).
• Automatic turn signal activation and correct exit selection at interchanges.
• Autopark: helps with parallel or perpendicular parking with a single touch.
• Summon: moves car in/out of tight spaces using the mobile app or key.
• Stop Sign Control: identifies stop signs and traffic lights, slowing the car to a stop.
• Features are continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.

Problems with Full Self-Driving Technology

• Missed deadlines and ongoing challenges:
  • Carmakers have repeatedly failed to deliver on promises of self-driving cars since 2014.
  • Issues persist, including malfunctions like running red lights and failing to recognize pedestrians.
• Beta testing concerns:
  • Tesla’s FSD beta testing relies on regular people on public roads, raising safety risks.
  • Expanding FSD in China could lead to over 1.7 million users, potentially generating revenue and data for Tesla but also increasing risks.
• Industry-wide struggles:
  • Companies like Google’s Waymo and GM’s Cruise haven’t achieved full self-driving either, and their limited successes are restricted to specific areas.
  • Incidents like 13 Cruise robotaxis stopping unexpectedly highlight the dangers of untested technology.
• Technical hurdles:
  • Developing self-driving cars is far more complex than initially anticipated.
  • There’s debate about the best sensor technology: cameras vs. a combination of sensors and cameras.
  • Processing large amounts of data to understand and predict situations remains a challenge for computers, unlike human drivers with situational awareness.
  • Mastering real-world AI for self-driving cars is a work in progress.
• Safety concerns and legal issues:
  • Companies like Uber and Lyft are exiting the self-driving car industry due to these difficulties.
  • Tesla faces lawsuits for failing to deliver on self-driving promises.
  • Studies show users of partial automation systems are more likely to engage in distracted driving.
  • US safety regulators are investigating Tesla’s self-driving systems and the adequacy of their recall to address crashes.

Way Forward

• Sensor Fusion and Advanced AI: Move beyond camera-only systems and explore a combination of lidar, radar, and other sensors. This richer data stream would provide more information for on-board computers. Additionally, continued development of real-world AI is crucial to handle complex situations and edge cases.
• Rigorous Testing and Simulation: Public road beta testing with regular people raises safety concerns. More robust closed-course testing with diverse and challenging scenarios is needed. Additionally, advancements in simulation technology could create even more realistic virtual testing environments.
• Transparency and Regulation: Carmakers need to be transparent about the limitations of current systems. Clearer regulations around testing, deployment, and driver responsibility are essential to ensure public safety and trust.
• Focus on Gradual Automation: While the dream of fully driverless cars persists, a more realistic approach might be incremental advancements in driver-assistance systems (ADAS). These could provide increased safety and support while keeping a human driver in control.

IMFs Regional Economic Outlook for Asia

Context: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest remarks on the Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific has maintained India as the world’s fastest growing major economy.

IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific: Key Findings

Economic Growth Forecasts

• India’s Growth Forecast: The IMF has revised India’s growth forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 to 6.8%, up from 6.5%, while retaining the 2025-26 forecast at 6.5%. India’s economy benefits from resilient domestic demand.
• Philippines’ Growth: Like India, the Philippines has shown repeated positive growth surprises, contributing to regional economic strength.
• Regional Growth Forecast: For Asia and the Pacific, the growth forecast has been increased to 4.5%, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from six months earlier, primarily due to upgrades for China.
• China’s Growth: Growth in China is expected to slow down from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.6% this year and further to 4.1% in 2025. This slowdown reflects broader regional trends.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

• Disinflation Trends: The IMF notes potential for further disinflation in the region due to lower energy prices. However, in India, rising food prices, especially for rice, might slow this disinflation.
• Monetary Policy Advice: Asian central banks are advised to focus on domestic price stability and not to rely heavily on US Federal Reserve interest rate moves. The prospect of global disinflation and lower central bank rates suggests a more balanced near-term outlook.

Private Consumption and Exchange Rates

• Private Consumption: In a subdued external environment, robust private consumption is expected to remain a key growth driver in emerging market economies in Asia.
• Exchange Rate Management: Asian countries are in a better position to handle exchange rate fluctuations due to improved macro-fundamentals and institutional frameworks. The IMF recommends allowing exchange rates to buffer against shocks.

Fiscal Policy and Structural Challenges

• Fiscal Consolidation: There is an urgent need for fiscal consolidation to manage higher debt levels and interest costs and to rebuild fiscal space for addressing medium-term structural challenges.

Risks and External Factors

• China’s Policy Impact: China’s policies, particularly regarding its property sector and domestic demand, will significantly influence regional outcomes. However, policies contributing to excess capacity could have negative impacts.
• Global Trade Risks: Global conflicts, such as those affecting shipping routes around Africa, pose risks to trade costs and supply chains. The IMF cautions Asian policymakers against aggravating trade frictions.

Examples, Case Study and Data For Value Addition

• Growth In Core sector (GS 3): India’s core sector growth decreased to 5.2% in March, down from 7.1% in February.
  • Sectoral Performance:
    • Decline in Certain Industries: In March, there was a decline in several industries: coal by 8.7%, crude oil by 2%, natural gas by 6.3%, and steel by 5.5%.
    • Contraction in Products: Refinery products saw a contraction of 0.3%, and fertilizers contracted by 1.3%.
    • Increase in Other Sectors: Cement and electricity outputs increased by 10.6% and 8%, respectively.
  • Annual Growth Comparison: The core sector experienced a growth of 4.2% in March 2023.
  • Electricity Generation: Electricity generation expanded positively in March and continued robustly into April.
  • Fiscal Year Growth Comparison:
    • FY24 Growth: The growth in the core sector for FY24 was 7.5%.
    • Comparison with FY23: This was slightly lower compared to 7.8% in FY23.
  • Positive Growth in All Sectors: All eight constituent sectors of the core industry showed positive growth during the financial year.
  • Contribution to IIP: The eight core industries constitute 40.27% of the total weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).

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