Cross Border Terror

This editorial covers the recent Reasi terrorist attack occurred on the day of PM Narendra Modi's third-term oath, similar in timing and intent to the 2014 attack on India's Consulate in Herat.

Table of Contents

Context

Reasi terrorist attack (2023) occurred on the day of PM Narendra Modi’s third-term oath, similar in timing and intent to the 2014 attack on India’s Consulate in Herat, Afghanistan.
Both attacks aimed to undermine significant political moments for PM Modi and India.

Historical and Strategic Overview

Encouragement from Afghan Jihad: Pakistan, inspired by the defeat of a superpower in Afghanistan, believed similar tactics could be used to destabilise India in Kashmir.
Early Responses: Initially, India’s response in the 1990s involved developing counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism strategies.
Pakistani Leadership’s Stance:
- Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s supported separatist movements in J&K, leveraging terrorism as a strategic tool.
- Bhutto halted talks unless Kashmir was a primary topic, Sharif later initiated structured dialogue focusing on multiple issues including terrorism.

India’s Counter-terrorism Strategy

1996 Assembly Elections: Signified a dual approach of force and political activity to manage the insurgency.
Simla Agreement (1972): Originally aimed at peaceful resolution, but Pakistan’s continued terrorism led India to treat these acts as strategic threats necessitating forceful responses.
Composite Dialogue (1998): Included terrorism as a discussion point; however, Pakistan showed reluctance to address India’s terrorism concerns genuinely.

Military and Diplomatic Measures

From 1998-2016: Successive Indian Prime Ministers chose diplomacy over military action despite public and political pressures for more direct responses.
Post-2001 Parliament Attack: India mobilised military forces but refrained from direct conflict following assurances from Pakistan.
Post-2008 Mumbai Attack: Opted for global diplomatic support against Pakistan instead of kinetic military action.

Shifts in Policy Post-2016

Surgical Strikes and Balakot Airstrike: Marked a strategic shift to more direct military responses following significant terrorist attacks.
Doctrine of Pre-emption: Established post-Pulwama (2019) to justify proactive strikes against imminent terrorist threats from Pakistan.

Ongoing Challenges and Diplomatic Efforts

International Recognition: Major powers generally recognize Pakistan’s use of terrorism, but plausible deniability remains a challenge.
Evidence Sharing: India continues to share evidence linking Pakistani groups to terrorism to maintain international credibility.
Future Intentions: External Affairs Minister’s expressed the ambitious intention of finding a “solution to years-old cross-border terrorism”. It suggests ongoing efforts to address and curb cross-border terrorism.