China-Taiwan Conflict, Background, India's Stance

China-Taiwan Conflict, Background, India’s Stance

A potential conflict between China and Taiwan presents a complex situation for India. Check here all about China-Taiwan Conflict, Background and India's Stance over conflict between China and Taiwan.

Table of Contents

Context: India’s growing global interests compelled it to ensure the Taiwan Strait’s status quo remained peaceful to protect trade ties and avert regional conflict with catastrophic economic implications.

Background of China-Taiwan Conflict

China-Taiwan Conflict
Historical Control of Taiwan	Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895 after China’s Qing dynasty lost the first Sino-Japanese war. China regained Taiwan post-World War II in 1945 as Japan faced defeat.
Post-War Developments and Civil War	Following China’s civil war ending in 1949, the nationalists retreated to Taiwan. The Kuomintang party, led by Chiang Kai-shek, established their rule in Taiwan and remains influential.
China’s Claim vs. Taiwan’s Position	China considers Taiwan a province within its sovereignty. Taiwan maintains it was never part of the People’s Republic of China established in 1949. Only 13 countries currently recognize Taiwan due to China’s diplomatic influence.
S. Policy and Military Involvement	The U.S. unofficially supports Taiwan’s self-governance, provides military arms, but officially recognizes the “One China Policy”. S. intervention during the 1950s involved the Formosa Resolution, a commitment to defend Taiwan. The 1995-96 missile tests by China near Taiwan prompted a significant U.S. military response.
Political Shifts and Economic Ties	Tsai Ing-wen’s election as President in 2016 began a more distinct pro-independence era. Tsai’s re-election in 2020 reinforced Taiwan’s pro-independence stance. Taiwan has robust economic connections, including investments in China.
Impact of Economic Interdependence	Pro-independence advocates in Taiwan fear economic ties with China may impede their objectives. Those favouring reunification, both in Taiwan and China, believe closer economic relations will weaken pro-independence efforts.
Ongoing Tensions	Despite its continued de facto independence, Taiwan’s situation with China is fragile. Economic growth in Taiwan could escalate tensions further, necessitating close observation of the region.

India’s Stance on Taiwan

Preservation of Status Quo: India’s main stance is maintaining the current self-governing status of Taiwan without pushing for independence, due to the increasing economic ties, including trade growth and technological investments such as the Tata partnership with Powerchip for semiconductor manufacturing.
Economic Implications: Conflict with Taiwan could disastrously disrupt global trade, severely impacting India’s economy and supply chains, potentially costing over 10% of global GDP according to a Bloomberg study.
Security Risks: A China-U.S. war over Taiwan could escalate tensions on the India-China border, disrupt regional industrial capacity, and risk nuclear escalation. The conflict would be detrimental to India’s pursuit of stability and growth.

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Potential Outcomes of Taiwan Conflict

If China were to emerge victorious in a conflict over Taiwan,

it could become the dominant regional military power,
altering security architecture,
destabilising regional relations, and
potentially influencing India’s security, especially in the Indian Ocean and in its border regions.

India’s Role and Policy Options

Deterrent Strategies: India can utilise a variety of policy tools to deter aggression, such as reinforcing international law, countering aggressive narratives, diplomatic communication, economic strategies, support for Taiwanese morale, and possibly military assistance to U.S. forces.
Grand Strategic Benefits: By enacting these policies, India could not only leverage its position against China but also strengthen its ties with the U.S., enhancing its global leadership, particularly among Global South nations.
Self-interest and Costs: Adopting these policies serves India’s own interests, even if they might provoke Chinese backlash. The consequences of inaction are seen as significantly more damaging than the costs of potential retaliation.