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China-Taiwan Conflict, Background, India’s Stance

Context: India’s growing global interests compelled it to ensure the Taiwan Strait’s status quo remained peaceful to protect trade ties and avert regional conflict with catastrophic economic implications.

Background of China-Taiwan Conflict

China-Taiwan Conflict
Historical Control of Taiwan
  • Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895 after China’s Qing dynasty lost the first Sino-Japanese war.
  • China regained Taiwan post-World War II in 1945 as Japan faced defeat.
Post-War Developments and Civil War
  • Following China’s civil war ending in 1949, the nationalists retreated to Taiwan.
  • The Kuomintang party, led by Chiang Kai-shek, established their rule in Taiwan and remains influential.
China’s Claim vs. Taiwan’s Position
  • China considers Taiwan a province within its sovereignty.
  • Taiwan maintains it was never part of the People’s Republic of China established in 1949.
  • Only 13 countries currently recognize Taiwan due to China’s diplomatic influence.
S. Policy and Military Involvement
  • The U.S. unofficially supports Taiwan’s self-governance, provides military arms, but officially recognizes the “One China Policy”.
  • S. intervention during the 1950s involved the Formosa Resolution, a commitment to defend Taiwan.
  • The 1995-96 missile tests by China near Taiwan prompted a significant U.S. military response.
Political Shifts and Economic Ties
  • Tsai Ing-wen’s election as President in 2016 began a more distinct pro-independence era.
  • Tsai’s re-election in 2020 reinforced Taiwan’s pro-independence stance.
  • Taiwan has robust economic connections, including investments in China.
Impact of Economic Interdependence
  • Pro-independence advocates in Taiwan fear economic ties with China may impede their objectives.
  • Those favouring reunification, both in Taiwan and China, believe closer economic relations will weaken pro-independence efforts.
Ongoing Tensions
  • Despite its continued de facto independence, Taiwan’s situation with China is fragile.
  • Economic growth in Taiwan could escalate tensions further, necessitating close observation of the region.

India’s Stance on Taiwan

  • Preservation of Status Quo: India’s main stance is maintaining the current self-governing status of Taiwan without pushing for independence, due to the increasing economic ties, including trade growth and technological investments such as the Tata partnership with Powerchip for semiconductor manufacturing.
  • Economic Implications: Conflict with Taiwan could disastrously disrupt global trade, severely impacting India’s economy and supply chains, potentially costing over 10% of global GDP according to a Bloomberg study.
  • Security Risks: A China-U.S. war over Taiwan could escalate tensions on the India-China border, disrupt regional industrial capacity, and risk nuclear escalation. The conflict would be detrimental to India’s pursuit of stability and growth.

China-Taiwan Conflict, Background, India's Stance_4.1

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Potential Outcomes of Taiwan Conflict

If China were to emerge victorious in a conflict over Taiwan,

  • it could become the dominant regional military power,
  • altering security architecture,
  • destabilising regional relations, and
  • potentially influencing India’s security, especially in the Indian Ocean and in its border regions.

India’s Role and Policy Options

  • Deterrent Strategies: India can utilise a variety of policy tools to deter aggression, such as reinforcing international law, countering aggressive narratives, diplomatic communication, economic strategies, support for Taiwanese morale, and possibly military assistance to U.S. forces.
  • Grand Strategic Benefits: By enacting these policies, India could not only leverage its position against China but also strengthen its ties with the U.S., enhancing its global leadership, particularly among Global South nations.
  • Self-interest and Costs: Adopting these policies serves India’s own interests, even if they might provoke Chinese backlash. The consequences of inaction are seen as significantly more damaging than the costs of potential retaliation.

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I, Sakshi Gupta, am a content writer to empower students aiming for UPSC, PSC, and other competitive exams. My objective is to provide clear, concise, and informative content that caters to your exam preparation needs. I strive to make my content not only informative but also engaging, keeping you motivated throughout your journey!