China-India: State of Play

A senior Chinese government official recently emphasised the importance of trust between India and China, highlighting the ongoing trust deficit stemming from the border standoff in Ladakh that has persisted for over four years. The Galwan Valley clashes in June 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers and at least 4 Chinese soldiers died, remain a pivotal event. It was the deadliest border clash since 1967, straining political ties.

Renewed Engagements: Rebuilding Ties

• Indian Media Delegation Visit
  • After the pandemic and standoff, an Indian media delegation visited China in October 2023, marking the first visit since 2019.
  • Chinese officials expressed their desire to normalise ties and emphasised their openness for business.
• Modi-Xi Meeting at BRICS
  • Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping met on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23.
  • Chinese officials highlighted the “chemistry” between the two leaders and called the meeting a “restart and re-launch” of relations.
• Recent Progress on Border Issues: In 2024, an agreement on “patrolling arrangements” marked the start of a three-step process: disengagement, de-escalation, and de-induction of troops.

Points of Convergence

Both countries have discussed:

• Resumption of direct flights: Pre-pandemic, Chinese airlines like Air China and China Southern operated flights to India.
• Easing visa restrictions for diplomats, scholars, and journalists.
• Allowing media exchanges: Currently, there is one Indian journalist in Beijing and no Chinese journalist in Delhi, a result of visa non-renewals in recent years.
• Cultural and business exchanges, including Indian movies in Chinese theatres.

Divergences in Priorities

• India’s Priorities:
  • Resumption of the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra for pilgrims.
  • Data sharing on trans-border rivers.
• China’s Priorities:
  • Celebrating the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations in 2025.
  • Enhanced collaboration through commemorative activities.

Challenges to Normalisation

• India remains cautious, emphasising the need for progress on border de-escalation as a precondition for broader engagements.
• Public opinion in India remains hardened after the Galwan clashes, adding pressure on policymakers.
• With 50,000–60,000 troops stationed on either side of the LAC in eastern Ladakh, de-escalation is critical for building trust.

Moving Forward

• Both nations are engaging in dialogue through mechanisms like:
  • Special Representatives-level talks, the last of which took place in December 2019.
  • The Foreign Secretary-Vice Minister mechanism.
• India is focused on cautious diplomacy, while China advocates for faster normalisation.

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