China Emission Paradox

China’s Domination and Current Status

• Global Emissions Leader: China contributes over 30% of global annual emissions.
  • It remains the world’s largest emitter for over 15 years.
  • Its emissions are now 3 times that of the United States.
• Renewable Energy Manufacturing Hub: China controls:
  • >80% of global solar panel manufacturing, dominating every step of production.
  • ~60% of global wind turbine production.
  • Large shares in batteries, hydrogen electrolysers, and critical minerals required for clean energy.
• Economic Leverage: Solar panel manufacturing costs in China are 10% lower than India, 20% lower than the US, and 35% lower than Europe.
• Renewable Energy Deployment: Added 300 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2023, expected to reach 1,200 GW by 2024, 6 years ahead of schedule.

The Need for Chinese Emission Cuts

• Analysis by Climate Action Tracker (CAT): It indicates that China needs to reduce its emissions by 66% by 2030 and 78% by 2035 to align with the 1.5-degree Celsius target set by the Paris Agreement.
  • However, such deep cuts are deemed unrealistic in the near term due to China’s ongoing economic recovery and energy-intensive growth patterns.
• NDC Ratings: China’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are rated as “highly insufficient,” indicating that current policies do not align with the goals necessary to limit global warming.

Challenges and Paradoxes

• Dependence on Fossil Fuels: Renewable energy is expanding capacity but not replacing fossil fuels.
  • g., renewables only make up a single-digit percentage of its primary energy supply, and coal generates over 50% of its electricity.
• Impact of Emission Cuts on Global Supply Chains: The production of renewable energy equipment like solar panels and wind turbines heavily relies on fossil fuels.
  • If China makes deep emission cuts:
    • It could slow the deployment of renewable energy equipment globally, impacting energy transitions worldwide.
    • This would jeopardise the goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.
  • Differentiated Responsibilities Under Climate Agreements: As a “developing” country under the UN climate framework, China is not mandated to make immediate, deep emission cuts. This limits global pressure.

Way Forward

• Diversification of Global Supply Chains: Other countries should invest in renewable manufacturing to reduce over-dependence on China.
• Gradual Transition from Fossil Fuels: Implement phased coal reduction plans while scaling up renewable integration to ensure a stable energy supply.
• International Collaboration on Technology: Facilitate partnerships for cost-competitive production of renewable equipment outside China, especially in regions like India, Europe, and the US.
• Balanced Emission Reduction Plans: Encourage China to adopt incremental emissions reduction targets without jeopardising global renewable production.
• Innovation in Low-Carbon Manufacturing: Invest in research to reduce the carbon footprint of renewable energy equipment manufacturing.
• Policy Incentives for Green Energy: Global frameworks must incentivize China to accelerate clean energy transitions through financial and technological support.

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