A Devastating Blow To Global Climate Efforts

The recent election of Donald Trump as president signals a dramatic reversal in U.S. climate policy. Trump's administration is expected to retreat from global climate negotiations, similar to his first term when he withdrew from the Paris Agreement.

Table of Contents

Project 2025: A Conservative Agenda

Project 2025, developed by The Heritage Foundation, outlines a conservative agenda that seeks to reduce federal climate science programs and install politically aligned science advisers at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
This initiative aims to dismantle the EPA’s 2009 endangerment finding, which classifies greenhouse gases (GHGs) as public health threats, potentially removing GHG emissions from future environmental legislation.
Key Proposals
- Reduction of Climate Science Programs: Significant cuts to federal funding for climate science and research into renewable energy and battery storage are anticipated.
- Ending Green Subsidies: The plan includes proposals to eliminate subsidies for green energy and oppose “climate reparations” for developing nations, undermining efforts toward climate justice.
- Focus on Fossil Fuels: Project 2025 emphasises reinstating fossil fuels as central to U.S. energy policy, rolling back carbon reduction initiatives and dismantling offices dedicated to renewable energy.

EPA Endangerment Findings

Endangerment Finding: The current and projected concentrations of six key well-mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) pose a threat to the public health and welfare of present and future generations.
Cause or Contribute Finding: The combined emissions of these greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and engines contribute significantly to greenhouse gas pollution, which endangers public health and welfare.
Impact of Findings:
- These findings do not directly impose requirements on industries or entities.
- However, they were essential prerequisites for introducing greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles and other sectors.

Threats to Climate Science and Energy Research

Funding Cuts: Significant reductions are expected for federal funding in renewable energy and battery storage research.
Impact on Fossil Fuels: Increased freedom for fossil fuel companies is anticipated, continuing bipartisan ambiguity on fracking.
Public Disconnection: Amplified climate disinformation under Trump’s administration could further detach the public from scientific realities, despite increasing climate disasters.

Global Climate Challenges

NDCs and Emissions Gap:
- Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) project emissions of 51.5 Gt CO2 equivalent by 2030 — only 2.6% lower than 2019 levels.
- This falls significantly short of the required 43% reduction for a 1.5°C target or 27% for a 2°C target.
- Current trajectories lead to temperature increases of up to 2.8°C.
- By 2030, 86% of the remaining carbon budget for the 1.5°C target will be consumed.
IPCC Synthesis Report: Urgent action is needed to enhance NDC ambition or overachieve current targets to prevent steeper reductions post-2030.

Rays of Hope Amidst Challenges

Despite the bleak outlook under Trump’s administration, there are signs of cautious optimism:

State-Level Initiatives: Many Republican-led states have begun investing in renewable energy, recognizing its economic benefits.
Survival of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA): The IRA, which channels over $390 billion into clean energy technologies, may withstand political attacks due to its economic advantages in Republican districts.